How Trump returned to the brink of power — with the help of a historic photo

Former president’s third run for the White House looked in doubt at one point, but then events started to go his way

On Aug 24 last year the Fulton County Sheriff’s office released a mugshot of Donald Trump, who had been booked on charges of attempting to overturn the 2020 election result.
The publication of that photograph, the first of its kind in American history, appeared on the Trump campaign’s website within hours, plastered on T-shirts, bumper stickers and beer coolers, raising millions of dollars for his re-election effort.
Trump also used it as an opportunity to return to Twitter, after being kicked off of the platform in the aftermath of Jan 6. With the support of Mr Musk he was reinstated:
https://t.co/MlIKklPSJT pic.twitter.com/Mcbf2xozsY
“Never surrender” became an unofficial campaign slogan, as Trump wove together his claims of a rigged election, phoney criminal indictments and deep-state conspiracy into a winning election formula.
In reality, he faced a personal crossroads pointing to wildly different destinations: a second term in the White House, or life behind bars.
The Fulton County mugshot was just one part of a series sprawling criminal indictments laid out in 2023
In March, June and twice in August, prosecutors brought their cases against Trump on a variety of charges, including election interference, falsification of business records and the mishandling of classified material.
Combined, the charges carried maximum sentences of more than 700 years in prison.
Earlier in 2023, it had still been unclear whether Trump could lead the Republicans into the election.
Following an unexpectedly strong performance by Democrats at the midterms, Trump’s third presidential run was in jeopardy.
He had announced the previous November that he intended to stand again for the GOP nomination, promising to become only the second president in US history to win back the White House after being beaten at the polls.
But he faced challenges from Ron DeSantis, the popular Republican governor of Florida, and a litany of other candidates promising to move the party on from the scandals of the Trump era.
“We should choose a new direction — a path that will lead to American revitalisation,” Mr DeSantis said, announcing his rival bid for the nomination in a livestream with Mr Musk. He did not name Trump, but the implication that the party needed a less controversial leader was clear.
Many registered Republicans clearly agreed. Some polls in the first months of the year put Mr DeSantis ahead of Trump, and several further candidates added their names to the mix, though none ever exceeded single-digit support.
By the end of the year, it had become clear that none of Trump’s primary challengers would have much success in the Iowa caucus in January – or beyond.
Polling showed his argument about a political “witch hunt” in the courtrooms was drawing him more support than ever.
One by one, almost all of Trump’s opponents dropped out, leaving an ill-fated campaign by Nikki Haley to restore moderate Republicanism to the top of the ticket.
At the same time, in the bizarre parallel world of Trump’s courtroom woes, the cases against him were either dropped or mired in legal tape.
Several of the 41 charges against Trump in the Georgia case were dropped in March, and the prospect of a trial date before November’s election became more and more unlikely.
The classified documents case, which his opponents had considered the most straightforward prosecution, was dropped in July on the first day of the Republican National Convention, and Trump’s immunity appeal to the election interference case in Washington had a surprise victory in the courts.
Only the prosecution for falsifying business records in New York succeeded, resulting in a conviction in May and planned sentencing on Nov 26 – three weeks after the election.
While much of Trump’s success in batting off scandal can be attributed to his undisputed skill in handling voters and the media, the last four months have thrown his campaign good fortune.
On June 27, exactly three years after his first speech since leaving the White House, Trump watched with glee as Joe Biden destroyed his presidential campaign on stage at a televised debate in Atlanta.
As Mr Biden waffled and stumbled, Trump exercised uncharacteristic restraint, at one point simply remarking: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”
Three weeks later, as Democrats floundered, the biggest wild card of the race emerged in the form of a lone shooter on a rooftop at Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Rising to his feet, with blood dripping from his ear, Trump shouted to the crowd: “Fight! Fight! Fight!”. Within hours, that image too was available on assorted merchandise from his campaign’s official store.
The incident added weight to Trump’s argument that sinister forces were working against him, fuelled by his wife’s implication that Thomas Matthew Crooks had been allowed onto the rooftop as part of a state-backed conspiracy. Once again, he went up in the polls.
Mr Biden’s decision to quit the race a week later, while not unexpected, presented Trump with a new challenge.
Kamala Harris, perhaps the least-scrutinised presidential candidate in history, has made significant gains on Mr Biden’s poll performance since accepting her party’s nomination and now looks in serious contention to win the election on Tuesday.
The energy her nomination brought the party – alongside a huge injection of donations – has tightened the race and pushed Trump into his most eccentric showmanship yet.
In the last fortnight alone he has worked the deep fat fryer of a McDonald’s franchise, driven a garbage truck and adopted the theme song of one of his several pro-wrestling backers – The Undertaker.
Two years after Trump declared his candidacy, the country now faces the closest and most consequential election in decades. Pollsters, pundits and punters on the betting markets have wildly different expectations of what will happen next.
But whatever result the vote brings, Trump has lived up to his “Teflon Don” nickname, borrowed from a New York mob boss who avoided conviction three times.
By some measures, Trump has already exceeded that record. He faces the country on Tuesday alive and well, and a free man. He remains America’s greatest showman. Only the American people can decide if the show will go on.